posted 05-02-2005 19:50               

As long as developers keep selling, they will keep building, no matter how overbuilt for exchanging a resort area is.

posted 05-02-2005 20:35               

It's easy to say an area with a resort or two is underbuilt and in high demand but if the year round demand was really there long term a developer would build it. The fact that they don't speaks volumes. Despite all the building Orlando thrives and somehow those units get filled. Put just 10% of them in NYC or on a barrier island and 3/4 of the year they sit mostly empty at maybe 20% occupancy. Thats the REAL demand numbers we are talking about and why good supply doesn't mean they an area isn't requested or in demand. Or that an area with less desireable but limited resorts is automatically a high demand area simply because 500 owners want 300 units in a specific timeframe. Maybe 2 out of every 10 weeks. The rest of the year they are lucky to see 30% use. In Orlando we're talking thousands of units and still more requests than they can meet 7 of every 10 weeks a year and those "low" 3 weeks get 60% or better use. Thats real demand and why more resorts keep getting built there.

Put it to the test. How many people, not just TUGGERS, want to own at or trade to Orlando, and figure they can afford the trip, over the next ten years 4 or more times? Ask the same question about NYC, London or Ocean City. Orlando wins hands down. Guaranteed. Thats demand.

posted 05-03-2005 04:45               

Then you look at all the 3's and 4's in Florida on the RCI Europe availibility chart. That availibility is much more likely to be in Orlando than in Key West, Sanibel, Captiva, or Miami Beach.

posted 05-03-2005 06:44               

As for not filling up I can only speak to the resorts I deal with. I know that getting a week at either Cypress Pointe Resort is tough. They are booked year round (yes, including hurricane season). The only available space is what the Associations have to rent for delinquent owners. Same with Fairfield. They have what 5 resorts there? Yet if you wait to request 6 months out you are likeley to find nothing available. Westgate? Maybe as they are still building but there are many specific weeks or unit types you can't get. If I wanted the dregs or resorts 20 miles from Disney there may be space but thats like not getting ocean front (location is important, right?). It all comes down to where you want, what type of resort and unit, and where you want to be. If you look at those factors Orlando is not an easy trade. If you don't care where you stay or what size unit then it can be fairly simple to get. That still doesn't mean the trade value/demand for the upper crust resorts is low as they are a different level of trade. And they get a fair share of points because of that. If you use those points to get two weeks worth of time at a lesser resort then that is making a decision to lower your expectations to gain more use. Points lets you do that - weeks doesn't. It revolves around who gets to decide what their own demand is. Does it get set by the exchange company in rigid week for week trades or by the owner getting his allotment of points and using them in the way that suits them best? Points allows the ultimate in demand choices as the owner gets to decide exactly what is important to them in an open environment of published values.

posted 05-03-2005 06:57               

quote:

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Originally posted by timeos2:
As for not filling up I can only speak to the resorts I deal with. I know that getting a week at either Cypress Pointe Resort is tough. They are booked year round (yes, including hurricane season). The only available space is what the Associations have to rent for delinquent owners.

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Shucks, the way things are going, it might just turn out to be easier to get an exchange reservation at a nice Orlando resort (Vistana Orlando, HGVC Seaworld) than to get a floating week reservation at my home resort in Orlando (Cypress Pointe Grandevillas).

Getting shut out of the floating timeshare week that you own because you waited too long to make your reservation -- wouldn't that be the pits?

Just 1 more reason to switch to timeshare "points," eh?

-- Alan Cole, McLean (Fairfax County), Virginia, USA.

posted 05-04-2005 18:31               

1. Buying a timeshare from the developer is an economical way to vacation. (I still find it amusing how some justify savings on top of savings to justify buying an asset that's worth X for 2X).

2. Buy a timeshare and you can exchange to any of thousands of resorts.

We all know that resort developers are preying on unwitting vacationers to sell their timeshares at 200-400% premium to what they are actually worth in the open market. And, they make tons of money doing it especially since the MFs help to guarantee very high equivalent occupancy rates. This is the root cause of the imbalances in timesharing exchange.

Also, we know that exchanging is like going to dinner on a fishing boat and having to catch your dinner. It doesn't work like a grocery store or restaurant where you can buy or order the fish you want, when you want it. The issue is that people buy thinking they are in a restaurant and not a fishing boat.

The obvious result of these two lies is that developers are encouraged to build and sell more units in areas where people vacation. The more people who go there, the more potential for sales.

That in turn, further exacerbates the poor exchange market for timeshares, as Carolinian so frequently points out, in those areas. Too much supply for the available demand since that demand is limited to timesharers.

But, the developer doesn't care. Because they got their money on the front end by overcharging the original buyer. They get their maintenance fees at a higher rate than normal occupancies in hotels. And, they double dip those customers by converting them to points for an exhorbitant rate. These owners are just throwing away good money after bad. After all, the third fundamental lie of timesharing is that a timeshare should NOT be evaluated as an investment. Anyone who doesn't treat a timeshare as an investment has pretty much drank the cool aid and is making a huge mistake.

This will continue until the majority of the general public understands the resale market and how difficult it is to exchange. That could be a long time from now.

The whole timeshare market is a distorted sham. But, a wonderful one at that for those who utilize it smartly. It could be Carolinian in his weeks trades to Europe, or PA in his buying below market and selling at market, or a CZ with his nice little rental business at Christmas Mountain Village.

The whole timesharing industry is probably the most inefficient market in the world. But, with inefficient markets comes GREAT opportunity. And, of course, there are the scams. For every smart Tugger who is benefiting from timesharing, there are hundreds of others who are getting no value for their timeshare purchase... literally. No exchange, no usage.

Well, I guess it will continue for a while. What a great hobby we have!

posted 05-04-2005 19:13               

quote:

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Originally posted by Carolinian:
But Orlando does NOT fill their timeshares nearly every week. Finally, have you ever heard of hurricane season??????

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posted 05-04-2005 22:18               

quote:

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Originally posted by Carolinian:
According to Bootleg, it was two of those high end, good location resorts in Orlando that had the highest surplus of supply over demand in the entire RCI system. Bootleg is in a position to know. One of those was Vacation Village at Parkway, which you obviously agree is high end.

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Steve, what's the other Orlando resort with extreme surplus of supply? I thought it might be Vistana, but I believe you said earlier in the thread that it wasn't an RCI Points resort.

quote:

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Originally posted by wcfr1:
Has anyone checked RCI exchange availability for this summer especially during hurricane season in Orlando? So little availability it's hard to believe it's overbuilt.

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Well, I just *tried* searching on RCI -- the website didn't work. (What a surprise. ) There's lots of availability in II, though.

posted 05-05-2005 07:38            

quote:

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Originally posted by timeos2:
I guess there are plenty of people looking for Orlando despite the number of units there. Why else would a smart and profitable company like Marriott be building there rather than on a beach somewhere? If the demand was really the same they would be building elsewhere. They built where people want to go and are willing to buy.

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I think you need to make a distinction between demand to trade into an area and the potential for selling at a high price to someone on vacation in an area. The only criteria that Marriott seems to have for building and selling new timeshares is its prediction as to its ability to be able to sell at its price. If there are a lot of people who vacation in Orlando (and there are), then the potential for selling to those people while they are on vacation can be good. It gets even higher when you factor in the ability to pitch to parents on vacation with their children, and the thought of having a hotel room near Disneyworld where the entire family can stay annually.

But, just because sales potential is good does not mean that there is a huge demand for trading in. While there are a lot of people who look to trade into the area, nevertheless there are a lot of unsold units that developers deposit in order to get new sales prospects, and there seems to be more capacity than demand. So, the supply/demand ratio favors poorer trading power, despite the ability to sell new units there.

posted 05-05-2005 18:34               

quote:

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Originally posted by timeos2:
Put it to the test. How many people, not just TUGGERS, want to own at or trade to Orlando, and figure they can afford the trip, over the next ten years 4 or more times? Ask the same question about NYC, London or Ocean City. Orlando wins hands down. Guaranteed. Thats demand.

---

43,000,000 + to be exact in 2003 according to the orlando's Visiotor's Bureau in an ad I saw when there in Feb 2005.

frenchieinme

posted 05-06-2005 11:53               

While a July 4th week trades well from Cape Cod, I wouldn't try to get any great trades form a winter week. With an Orlando resort, the July 4th week might not be quite as good as the Cape Cod resort, but any offseason Orlando week will still out-trade the lowest season in Cape Cod. As long as you understand your limitations an Orlando week is not a bad option, particularly if you plan to use it part of the time.

------------------
Melinda Towne

posted 05-06-2005 12:17               

JMHO of course

frenchieinme

posted 05-06-2005 19:16               

quote:

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Originally posted by Carolinian:
I have traded into Orlando twice, once in January (a 2 on the RCI Europe availibility chart) and once in February (a 1 on that chart). I didn't have any problem getting a nice GC resort in a good location either time.

It's a different story trying to find a summer week on the French Riviera, or a week much of the time in Hollard, Italy, London, Paris, Vienna, summer Outer Banks, Key West, New York City, etc.

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That's true for most of jan and Feb BUT...

Take 2006. Daytona 500 is Feb 19 with pre-daytona trials being week 6 (Feb 12 thru 19) and week 7 (Feb 19 thru 26) has Presidents' Day in it as well as being school vacation week for the northern states, especially New England. The demand for weeks 1 thru 5 and 8 thru 10 will be so-so comapared to weeks 6 & 7 which if past practice holds true will translate itself into demand outstripping supply for these 2 weeks. This has been so for several years now. I don't see any indicators why 2006 and following years will be any different.

Hence, someone will write in and say "I got a nice 2BR with little if any difficult with supply far outstripping demand" (making reference to weeks 1 thru 5) not making mention of the week being refered to. The people wanting weeks 6 & 7 will go along with this assumption and then be disappointed in finding such low availability in what was referenced as a high supply area.

I know the demand for my Presidents' Week units has yearly been increeasing greater than the supply. I have no problems getting a premium for these weeks. People don't ask how much but rather is it available.

In summary, owning soecific key high demand weeks in the Orlando land of the big Mouse can be very rewarding indeed.

JMHO of course

frenchieinme

posted 05-07-2005 06:16               

quote:

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Originally posted by timeos2:
Steve - It's a different story trying to get most summer weeks, holidays, and roughly 60-70% of the year in Orlando too. How much of the year has that high summer time demand in those other areas? You are comparing a small slice of high demand time for areas you mention that the majority of owners aren't going to visit more than once vs a 7-9 month demand in an area that people return to again and again. It's not a reasonable comparison and proves nothing about the level of total Orland demand.

---

Once again, I am not questioning that their is a huge demand for Orlando. The problem is that, for most of the year, there is even more supply. Bootleg, who works for RCI, has told us repeatedly that Orlando is one of the areas where there is almost always availibility, along with Williamsburg, Massanutten, and Branson.

posted 05-07-2005 08:07               

quote:

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Originally posted by Carolinian:
Once again, I am not questioning that their is a huge demand for Orlando. The problem is that, for most of the year, there is even more supply. Bootleg, who works for RCI, has told us repeatedly that Orlando is one of the areas where there is almost always availibility, along with Williamsburg, Massanutten, and Branson.

It would be interesting if Fletch were still on these boards. Old time Tuggers will remember the insight and knowledge he used to impart here. One regular comment he used to make was not to buy in Orlando to trade because it was overbuilt. He quit participating on TUG when he changed jobs and started selling timeshare for Marriott in Orlando. I guess he had to keep his opinions on the relative value of Orlando for trading to himself after that, and, of course, he considered that he had a conflict of interest in getting involved in any timeshare discussions here as well.

---

posted 05-07-2005 12:21               

quote:

---

Originally posted by Carolinian:
Once again, I am not questioning that their is a huge demand for Orlando. The problem is that, for most of the year, there is even more supply. Bootleg, who works for RCI, has told us repeatedly that Orlando is one of the areas where there is almost always availibility, along with Williamsburg, Massanutten, and Branson.

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Would it make more sense to own 2 timeshares, each EOY so that you could use your own when in Orlando, and trade the other. If I needed the high trade power, I might buy elsewhere and trade in, but then you might also question why you would use a high-powered week to trade in. Once you factor in the exchange fee (which keeps rising, moreo than maintenance fees), the cost of owning in Orlando vs trading in isn't so bad.

Figure you're going to Orlando every other year. In one case, you're paying $1200 maintenance fees for 2 years, plus one exchange fee to go wherever you choose (whatever you can get). If you don't own Orlando, you pay double exchange fees, so would need to have lower maintenance fees. I don't know that many super traders with fees in the range o $400 per year, and low resale prices. As a resale, Orlando fits the bill well.

------------------
Melinda Towne

posted 05-07-2005 17:18               

quote:

---

Originally posted by Carolinian:
Once again, I am not questioning that their is a huge demand for Orlando. The problem is that, for most of the year, there is even more supply. Bootleg, who works for RCI, has told us repeatedly that Orlando is one of the areas where there is almost always availibility...

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True, but the question to ask here is "is this the time of the year you want to come to Orlando?" If yes, then there is no need to buy in Orlando, simply exchange or rent. However, if when you want to come to Orlando the availability is lacking, then it may be better to buy. In our case, when we come down and use our weeks, availability is almost non-existent (our 1000+ unit resort has been sold out during the weeks we use for the past 3 years).

For instance, I found a fantastic deal on flights to Orlando in 2006 and we already have our tickets bought as we don't need to worry about lodging. People are calling me asking for availability in my units. It is much less stressful for me to own there and to just sit back and enjoy. If I were to wait to find out if there is acceptable availability for Presidents' week in the type of unit we need, I would have to wait before I could buy my airline tickets and maybe the $$$ I saved in lodging would be more than eaten up by higher air fares. It can be a vicious circle if things don't go well.

In summary, if one can come to Orlando at low demand weeks, then owning is certainly not in the plans for these people. If Orlando is a place you want to come year after year and enjoy (which is IMO one of the major reasons to enjoyable timesharing experiences), then buying is the way to go. It's a matter of making things work based on one's own specific, personal needs.

JMHO of course

frenchieinme