posted 05-18-2005 07:05               

I have been collecting timeshare sales data from the various auction sites for several years now. In order to be made a part of my data, the high bid must have met the reserve, which should mean that the buyer and seller have agreed on a price and the sale was completed.

Of the resorts that I have been watching, Powhatan Plantation has had the largest number of sales. Any trends are probably more likely to show up here than any of the other resorts I have been watching.

The sales data tabulated below is for only 4-bedroom lockout units (C/D) during the summer (weeks 22 Through 35). I will leave it up to you to decide what, if anything, these numbers might mean for timesharing in general.

                       NUMBER    AVERAGE
TIME PERIOD           OF SALES    PRICE
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Nov-01 thru Apr-02     3 units    $5730
May-02 thru Oct-02     none
Nov-02 thru Apr-03     5 units    $5750
May-03 thru Oct-03     none
Nov-03 thru Apr-04     7 units    $4520
May-04 thru Oct-04    11 units    $3710
Nov-04 thru Apr-05     8 units    $2810 

posted 05-18-2005 07:43               

It's probably like anything else (except electronics). Popular models go up or at least hold their own. Less popular ones get discounted.

Thanks for sharing the info.

posted 05-18-2005 08:14               

quote:

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Originally posted by sfwilshire:
Don't you think it would be natural for resale values of older resorts to go down as newer resorts are built in the same area...

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I was actually thinking the opposite. For me, touring a new $25k-$50k timeshare might get me interested in staying in that area, causing me to look into (what should be) much cheaper resales. That potentially causes the resale value at existing resort to go up, because they are perhaps much more affordable (and perhaps better values) than new developments.

posted 05-18-2005 09:28               

Perhaps on multi-location chains like Worldmark, you'll see a little up-tick as developer pricing rises. PERHAPS.

On the other hand, Fairfield is steadily decreasing, even though more resorts are coming on line, and developer price per point has risen over the years.

posted 05-18-2005 13:26               

quote:

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Originally posted by ACCfan:
..
I know for my Marriott that the resale prices have gone up. I've had discussions with a resale broker who sells a lot of Marriott's, and on most of the Marriott's the prices have definitely gone up over the years.

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Everyone's entitled to an opinion. I'd like to know which ones you believe have gone up over the years.

If you're saying Marriott resorts as a whole cost more today than 5 years ago, I would perhaps agree, as you're considering newer resorts than 5 years ago.

If you're saying a specific resort that has been sold out for a while is going up in value, I say no possible way, not in my observations.

That makes no logical or economic sense at all, that I can see. Can you think of any logical reason that might happen?

posted 05-18-2005 13:50               

quote:

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Originally posted by PA:
I've followed many resorts over the years, and I've NEVER seen the pricing go up on any standalone resort.

Perhaps on multi-location chains like Worldmark, you'll see a little up-tick as developer pricing rises. PERHAPS.

On the other hand, Fairfield is steadily decreasing, even though more resorts are coming on line, and developer price per point has risen over the years.

Once a resort is sold out and prices reach a set-point, they will never (in my opinion) rise above that set-point, they will continue to go down. Unless something unusual happens to significantly raise it's value (like the addition of a major attraction nearby or something).

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I've been tracking pricing lightheartedly. There are two resorts that have seen price increases, but not yet over their original IPO (initial public offering price, LOL): the resort in the Key West Florida, I believe it's the Galleon, and perhaps the Sunset Beach Hyatt; and the UDI's at Christmas Mountain Village.
But outside of these two resorts the universe of resorts has done nothing but come down in price over the years. Some have stabilized.

My rule of thumb about resale pricing of most resorts is that if they sell at $1000 or lower, it has to be pretty good buy.

posted 05-18-2005 14:40            

quote:

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Originally posted by PA:
If you're saying a specific resort that has been sold out for a while is going up in value, I say no possible way, not in my observations.

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Grande Ocean, which I think was built about 10 years ago, has gone up in value. If you purchased from Marriott when it opened when platinum weeks were selling for the mid to high teens, you can now sell that same week on the resale market for the low to mid 20's.

The same applies for Summit Watch and Mountainside. Summit Watch platinum weeks originally sold 10+ years ago for somewhere in the mid teens and now you can't find a resale week for anything less than 19K. Summit Watch doesn't even have a ROFR to artificially keep the prices up. Mountainside platinum weeks just sold out and I've seen them go on the resale market for the low 20's 1-2 years ago to now where they go for the mid 20's.

posted 05-18-2005 14:46               

Overall I expect that we are all right when we depreciate our units. Prices will continue to fall.

The real question is once the resale market becomes more commonly known how will this affect prices.

posted 05-18-2005 14:55               

Most have been selling CHEAP on ebay.. sometimes 50% of what they sold for a year ago. This primarily for offseason, the prime weeks are still comanding a decent price.

Laguna Surf is a resort that I have seen he resale prices for summer, creeping up over the past couple years.

PA,
I don't think you can make a blanket statement that there is no way for prices to increase on a sold out resort.
Laguna Surf, it is on the ocean in So Cal.
Real estate prices have quadrupled in the past 10 years.
I think most of the prime timeshares in So Cal are very underpriced, but then again the true value is what they command resale.

I think the explosion of being able to dump timeshares easily on the internet has driven the prices down. Eventually they might stabilize.

The prices of Hilton Flamingo is less than the developer prices, but the resales prices have gone up during the past 2 years.
This resort is sold out and has no ROFR

posted 05-18-2005 22:38               

quote:

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Originally posted by tonyg:
I would say that prices are increasing lately at the more desireable resorts, while holding steady at some and falling at others.

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Cool! So does that mean that my Mayan Palace is going up??

Sorry, just couldn't resist!

Tom

posted 05-19-2005 21:52               

The problem I've had with buying timeshares is that there are so many ways to leverage their values: deposit and exchange into higher cost weeks elsewhere, deposit into Points and get more flexibility, even outright rental. BUT when it comes time to sell, the profits are there but negligible if you compare the profits to be made by renting or "profits" made by exchanging.

posted 05-19-2005 22:41               

quote:

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Originally posted by RonaldCol:
I've been tracking pricing lightheartedly. There are two resorts that have seen price increases, but not yet over their original IPO (initial public offering price, LOL): the resort in the Key West Florida, I believe it's the Galleon, and perhaps the Sunset Beach Hyatt; and the UDI's at Christmas Mountain Village.
But outside of these two resorts the universe of resorts has done nothing but come down in price over the years. Some have stabilized.

My rule of thumb about resale pricing of most resorts is that if they sell at $1000 or lower, it has to be pretty good buy.

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The CMV UDI on ebay last week sold for $2600, that seems a little lower than they used to sell for?

posted 05-20-2005 08:12               

quote:

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Originally posted by elaine:
re. real estate escalation---what i think is interesting is that you can get a summer 2 BR east coast beach week for $2500-5000 easily (we bought atlantic beach, NC for under $3K), but beach house prices have skyrocketed in the area, an all laong east coast. A 2 BR condo would go for $300K + in that area and a beach house, not the fancy ones, just a 3/2 are $500K+. We are at the point of serioulsy thinking buying 3 more resales in serial weeks might have to be our "beachhouse."

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Seriously - the depressed market for timeshares makes this a real possibility. While most of the year at these timeshares have limited value due to weather unlike a full condo you can cherry pick fixed summer weeks in timeshares and limit both your initial cost and annual expenses. Someday owners of those weeks will wise up and realize they have something worth much more than a week 3 at a beachside or highy seasonal resort but right now they all seem to get lumped into to the low value category by buyers and most sellers. If you wanted to do it you could get deeply discounted vacations comparable to the units that most of us could never afford or even a "summer home" at a great resort through resales of timeshare weeks.

posted 05-20-2005 10:03               

The whole market is so 'inefficient', that there's a wide range in price everyday....

Within 2 months, I sold one 3BR CO ski week for $3k, and bought a Christmas week for $750.....how do you explain that? If a year later I see a $1500 sale....has it doubled or dropped 50% ??!?!?!??

Hat

posted 05-20-2005 19:43               

quote:

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Originally posted by calihockey33:
The CMV UDI on ebay last week sold for $2600, that seems a little lower than they used to sell for?

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I checked the sale on eBay. It appears as if it was a Christmas Mountain Village UDI. It also appears as if the buyer is CZ.

CZ bought one on eBay early this year for less than $1000. That was also a UDI at Christmas Mountain. After he bought this one he then sold two of his UDI's for about $7000. I stand corrected on the pricing.

There are bargains to be had on eBay. Last week I was involved in doing other things so I wasn't even watching auctions for UDI's. Had I known about this I would have bid higher, but I didn't know. This is one of the beauties of the internet age at this juncture of it's growth: there are opportunities to be had just by monitoring and finding disparate relationships. I wouldn't mind buying something at $3,000 and selling it for $7,000. I can do this all day long.

CZ found a niche whereby he buys undervalued timeshares and knows their values. Buyers who pay prices that insure a profit to him can find additional values.

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"Stop me before I buy again!"