posted 05-14-2005 06:29               

Time to bring the meaningful posts over to a new thread. This is necessary because as threads get too long, the forum does not handle them well. Eventually they will be lost.

I will be pulling old stuff over, and you can, too, but here is where we started on the third generation, July 25, 2004:

Officially for RCI, SW Florida is a Subarea that begins at Englewood/Port Charlotte/Punta Gorda and goes south to Marco Island.
I have been familiar with, interested in, in love with SW Florida since going there during my previous incarnation in the 1970's. Initially my interest was in Ft. Myers Beach, but eventually branched out to include Sanibel/Captiva, Bonita Beach, Vanderbilt Beach, Naples, Marco Island, and, yes, Lehigh Acres.

In my new incarnation, we began timesharing in SW Florida, Weeks 1 and 2 each year, in the early 90's. In those days, with no RCI.com, the method of searching involved ongoing searches and relying on the word of a VC. We typically wound up with Lehigh Acres, and with one of the crappy units across the road at Lahaina Inn one week in the early 90's.

With the advent of RCI.com, a better trading week, TUG, and a dose of reality leading to semi-enlightenment, about five years ago we discovered that there are many wonderful resorts in SW FL and they really are/were available.

With RCI.com I began searching SW FL for each January I could, every day I was home. I began recording my searches on March 27, 2002, and have recorded every search since. No, I did not have a crystal ball to know that our best trading week would suddenly lose ALL trading power and I would need my documentation to present to RCI for a remedy. And I had no idea that two years later we would be concerned about prime weeks going directly to rentals.

I believe why I started recording my searches was because of TUG. There were several very nice, very informative members (most of whom seem to no longer be here) who gave advice on areas they were familiar with. As good as their advice was and as well-meaning as they appeared to be, what I found lacking was specifics, empirical data, so I adopted SW FL to study.

I sometimes say that if each of us would do this, for a Subarea we like, it would be a service to all of TUG.

So much for the idle chatter. For those of you who are viewing this for the first time, I just wanted you to be aware of the extent of time and study I have put into this. I have not yet found any simple explanations for the results.

Here's what I've seen:

January, 2004: Search began 3/27/02 with 10 resorts available. The peaks came in July and October, 2002, with 14 resorts. That would have been at 18 and 15 months out. At a year out (January, 2003) it was running 8 and 9 resorts. At six months out it was down to zero to 2.

January, 2005: Search began 3/19/03, with 11 resorts available. The peak came in June and August, 2003, and held through October, with 13 resorts. At 13 months out it was running 5-6, but at a year out it was zero to 3, and never recovered.

January, 2006: Search began 1/28/04, with 2 resorts. In 2/04, it was up to 6, but hasn't done much since. It has hit as high as 9, in June, at 19 months out, the timeframe when the previous searches began their peak. Now, in July, 2004, it has been running only 5-7 resorts.

General observations: First, there has never been any wild and radical fluctuation from one day to the next, as some might lead you to believe. It has seldom changed more than one resort in a day, often times with that one reappearing within the next two days. Several times it has gone many days, sometimes more than a month, with no change whatsoever.

Obviously, there has been a reduction in the number of resorts available.

This was refelected in the 2005 search, when at a year out the typical surge from people Spacebanking in December and January, when fees are paid and trading power is being maximized, did not occur. It was more like what you should see at six months out, 0-3, and never rebounded.

January, 2006, is more obvious. The numbers have simply never been there.

As alarming, the resorts that are not appearing for 2006 are the better resorts. In previous years I saw an occasional Gold Crown, or RID, which I either took or referred to others. Some may remember when I posted Club Regency on Sightings, a Gold Crown I could not take because we already had another Gold Crown!!!! When we changed our plans, I did take it, since it lingered on RCI.com for quite awhile. Club Regency then appeared again and so did Charter Club of Marco and a couple on Sanibel.

But, nothing like that for 2005 or 2006.

So, there it is. The numbers are down. The quality is down. Even searching every day, starting two years out.

- - - - - -
Added 7/26: To give me and mine an alternative, and to share that with others, on March 10, 2004, I began the daily search of "Resorts on the Beach", mainly for January 2006, but also for 2005.

Amazingly, most other areas of Florida do not have the problem I see in SW FL. The Keys, of course, are tough, but I was able to snag a decent place there for Week 1, 2006, something we have always wanted to do,much likeI used to be able to do in SW.

I have seen as many as 55 choices for ROTB for 1/06 and almost as many for 1/05. Some really, really nice places.

Today there were 46 for 2006 and 43 for 2005 (Yes, even at this late date--five months out!).

Go figure!

I have email.

posted 05-16-2005 07:49               

My purpose, specifically, is to salvage and keep alive my life's work.

I'm trying to avoid the petty frays, which seem to be doing OK without me.

posted 05-16-2005 08:27               

To underscore the popularity of SW FL, this morning there are still 43 "Resorts on the Beach" for this coming January, even at this late date.

Of course, about all that's been available in SW for the last seven months is Lehigh.

There's nothing vailable in the Keys, but that area doesn't have that many resorts and they always have gone quickly.

Sarasota has nothing left.

SE still has a few left.

Everywhere else is fairly plentiful.

Looks like the Sarasota area is picking up the slack.

That's a trend, seen early, that might be of value.

Or maybe not.

posted 05-16-2005 08:29               

For Jan., '05, a couple lesser resorts appeared today, perhaps coincidentally just after semi-annual rci.com maintenance, making 3 available.
Jan., '06, now appears to be at it's peak, with 8 available, all lesser resorts. The peak used to be double that figure.

Resorts on the Beach is staying decent, with 30 for Jan. '05, and 51 for Jan. '06.

As previously predicted, for Jan. '05 there is now no availability in the Sarasota area. NW, Panhandle, NE and SE all have some, with the overwhelming majority being NE--St. Augustine to Cocoa Beach.

posted 05-16-2005 08:31               

We have never not gotten what we need in SW FL in January. 2005 is the first year availability did not live up what it was in the past. 2006 is worse.

posted 05-16-2005 08:41               

Even at this late date, there is still availability in "Resorts on the Beach" for amonth from now, the first month of Snowbird season:

"The following 8 Resorts have availability during your requested time frame."

Seven of the eight are in "NE" Florida, the last to be picked when choosing sides.

posted 05-16-2005 08:42               

Yesterday our search for January, 2006, was fulfilled. We accepted an exchange. It's On the Beach, but not rated. A place we are familiar with and that we will enjoy.

FTR, that search began 1/1/04, and I have done it at least once a day every day we've been home since.

So, stuff, settle-for type, still shows up, that does not get snagged by an ongoing search, if you are committed enough to do the work.

posted 05-16-2005 08:48               

Prior to RCI.com we got very little that we requested, either through RCI.com or having a VC search. Since RCI.com, we have gotten everything we've wanted, eventually.

Since RCI.com we have owned as many as six weeks and none have gone unused.

This is a very old discussion, having been conducted many times. Some folks have confidence in ongoing searches and some not.

We do not.

Each time we talk to a VG they say something that is not true and they sometimes say they cannot see stuff I can. We have seen some pretty strange things with the computers, which never could be explained by anyone at RCI.

Nor do we like to pay for something, upfront, that we may never get, just for the right to shop.

I do not know what I would do with the first of hour of each day if I did not do my searches and drink my coffee.

What do you do with yours?

The only way to learn more about what your week(s) are worth, trade-wise, is to see everything they pull in a search. I have become familiar with the resorts in our favorite areas by seeing them in print so many times. If you never do that, you will be forever clueless, perhaps asking questions on Internet forums that you could have answered for yourself many years earlier.

If you can search yourself, even if there were no problems doing it another way, why not?

In a recent interview, a member of the British Royal family said they are driven to official functions, but like to drive everywhere else themselves.

How many here have said how much they love the thrill of the hunt? There is no thrill if someone else does the hunting.

If they did not want us to use it, it would not be there.

Edit: Oh yeah, I could not do my study, and would have not known how bad availability has become, if I did not do my daily searches.

And, sometimes they come in handy when dealing with RCI. Here is a snippet from a message I sent to another TUGger almost three years ago, when we had a trading power issue:

"I put > my > > "study" in the mail today--139 pages of before and after searches!"

That's about it.

I added "Resorts on the Beach" to my searches earlier this year, to figure out where folks are going next. And, Yes, after the Keys and SW, Sarasota appears to be the next area preferred.

IMO, it seems to be following the economics of Florida. SW has priced itself out of the range of many, and folks are now settling for further north. I have followed SW Florida since the 1970s and the price of coastal property for almost 15 years.

posted 05-16-2005 08:49               

Another slow day at the lake--too nasty to go out in the TUGboat and chase bald eagles.
Exploring January in Florida further, weather is most likely the major determining factor as to what areas of Florida are most popular. That is why folks go to Florida in January to begin with.

With an upcoming trip, I checked the average daily temperatures where we are going, and then just decided to live recklessly and check all the areas included in "Resorts on the Beach." Not surprisingly, the warmest areas are the most popular.

The following are the average daily highs and lows for Week 2:

Key West 76/65
Ft. Lauderdale 76/59
Naples 75/54
Sarasota 75/54
Daytona Beach 70/47
Destin 61/36

It's also kinda strange that Florida's two coldest months are such popular months for Resorts on the Beach.

Notice how much warmer the low is in Key West. Balmy days/Balmy nights.

For the same timeframe the daily high and low in Lihue, HI, is 79/68. Although Hawaii temperatures are more even throughout the year than Florida, the "coldest" months in Hawaii are also the most popular.

Like I said--slow day.

posted 05-16-2005 08:52               

Well, the more I look, the more I see, or don't see, that I don't wanna see, or wanna see but it's not there.

We have been going to Florida in January for many years. We have stayed in the SE, SW, Tampa, NE and Orlando. In most of those areas it has been a pretty slow month. The Tampa area beaches, Daytona area, and Orlando have always been very slow, very much off-season weeks.

But now, looking at "Florida" for next month, there are only 8 resorts anywhere. For January, 2006, there are 96 resorts available.

So, is it becoming another of those things where if you search well ahead there is no problem, but by the actual use dates just about everything has been taken?

Or is it a glitch? Or is stuff going somewhere else?

If the conflict of interest with the exchange company did not exist, between making exchanges and selling rentals, this concern would not exist, we would not have to wonder.

It's sorta like this thread below, where we can't talk about availability without seeing stuff being offered to non-owners, non-members:
http://www.tug1.net/tugbbs1/Forum14/HTML/003242.html

posted 05-16-2005 08:53               

On 12/16 I reported that there were 8 resorts available for next month in ALL of Florida. Today, three days later and 13 days before the first checkin date, there are 29 resorts available!!!!

I'm dumbfounded. Where did all of that come from?

It's not a 45-day window thing because my searcher can see everything all the time. I don't believe it's because a bunch of folks just got their maintenance bills in the last three days and decided to late-deposit weeks less than 30 days off. But, that's possible if the exchange company still accepts weeks up until 14 days before start date.

The simple question, which no one would answer if you asked, is, "Where did this stuff come from?"

If the conflict did not exist, between offering rentals to the public and exchanges to members, I would not be so inclined to think that perhaps it is deposits that had been offered as rentals up until now, and they did not get taken, and now they are being offered to member/owners.

Sorta a reverse "excess weeks".

Just reporting the evidence.

posted 05-16-2005 08:55               

OK. What's going on?

Today is 12/20/04. For SW Florida for 12/28/04-2/1/05, I have not seen more than 2 resorts available since 5/2/04. Most days it has been 1 or Zero. Today suddenly there were seven, including a Gold Crown on Marco Island, which disappeared within five minutes of when I first saw it. All checkins today are for the first weekend in '05.

On 12/16/04, as reported that day in this thread, there were 8 resorts for all of Florida in that timeframe. Today there are 50. Most of these are for the first weekend checkins.

posted 05-16-2005 08:57               

Holy Moly Batman!
Just when you thought all of the back room has been cleared out, another day dawns and another load of "excess" something-or-other makes it into the exchange pool.

This morning:

Florida/Florida for 12/29/04-2/1/05

“The following 42 Resorts have availability during your requested time frame.”

Including a TUG favorite Orlando resort:

“2 8 / 6 Full 12/31/2004 Exchange
S 4 / 2 Partial 01/01/2005 Exchange
2 8 / 6 Full 01/01/2005 Exchange
3 12 / 8 Full 01/01/2005 Exchange
2 8 / 6 Full 01/02/2005 Exchange
3 12 / 8 Full 01/08/2005 Exchange
3 12 / 8 Full 01/09/2005 Exchange"

This search was down to 27 resorts the last I checked last night and the resort shown above was down to just one studio left for the month.

posted 05-16-2005 09:05               

Really, truly great stuff is appearing for 1/1/05 checkin. This morning there were two beachfront resorts in SW FL, as opposed to late yesterday when only Lehigh was available. One of those was taken in the time to search it a second time.

The one that was taken was an HGVC Gold Crown and I have only seen a couple of beachfront Gold Crowns in two years of searching for Jan. '05.

As has been explained, ongoing searches cannot pick up what is being cancelled, so the best way to get these exchanges is rci.com, it appears.
- - - - - -

PS--In another thread Madge explained that the suddently increase in short-term invoentory could be coming from a number of sources, among them rentals that had not been taken.

She also explained that 14-days prior to check-in ongoing searches do not match up with inventory that becomes available, unless the person with the ongoing search specific requests that it continues, so late deposits and other sources of late inventory do not match up with ongoing seraches.

posted 05-16-2005 09:07               

A new year. A good time to stop and assess.

There has not been much reporting because there has not been much to report. Two years ago availability got very sparse, and that has not changed.

Here's how it's been this time of year looking at the following January each year (11 months out):

2002-10 resorts available for January 2003
2003-7 for 2004
2004-1 (with no significant recovery) for 2005
2005-2 for 2006

2007 does not look any better. Thusfar there have only been 2 available.

The only newsworthy event was that between December 16th and 19th availability for this January suddenly blossomed, with stuff being offered elsewhere, I guess, making it to the exchange pool. Gold Crowns for SW Florida appeared. For all of Florida the number of available resorts went from 8 to more than 50 and was replaced each day, for a couple weeks, with more stuff. That had never happened before.

Spooky, for one who searches every day.

During weekend maintenance RCI added more subareas to the Florida area.

posted 05-16-2005 09:09               

Things have not improved.

Pretty much just Lehigh for January, 2006, with an occasional Charlotte Harbor. Four or five lesser resorts for January, 2007.

I'm now looking more at "Resorts on the Beach", to see how other areas are doing.

posted 05-16-2005 09:10               

"Resorts on the Beach" for January, 2006, has been very active the past month. Prior to that the supply had been fairly stable, but more than a third of it is now gone.

Also, today I saw what I have been waiting for for January, 2007, which I have been watching for daily for just three months. I called to check the unit number and then accepted it.

That wasn't too bad, but now what's a guy to do, having the next two years booked?

Like always, keep looking anyway, just to see.

Oh yeah, a quirky thing about this transaction. When I called a guide to see what unit number was available, he could not see it until I actually put it on Hold online, paying for it, etc. When he told me the unit number, and it was OK, he went ahead and confirmed it.

If you are thinking one step ahead, you know I am going to say that online it still said the unit was on Hold and I needed to call to confirm it, even though that had just been done. I called another guide and she confirmed it had been confirmed.

However, it did not say that online until I logged out and loggged back in.

posted 05-16-2005 09:11               

Most of us know the following, but to demonstrate the highly-seasonal nature of the shortage of resorts in SW Florida, equating to the hords of snowbirds arriving from around the world, check out the following availability:

September: 21 Resorts
October: 11 Resorts
November: 12 Resorts
December: 19 Resorts
January: 1 Resort
February: 0 Resorts
March: 1 Resort

posted 05-16-2005 09:13               

To illustrate, again, how time-sensitive Florida availability, or lack thereof, is, for December, 2005, there are 83 Resorts on the Beach v. 31 for January. There are 47 for December, 2006, v. 28 for January, 2007.

Both December searches show a few of the better resorts I use to see occasionally for January. In total, I have seen any of the better resorts only three times for January, '06 (in 15 months of daily searching), and none, yet, for January, '07 (in 3 months of daily searching).

posted 05-16-2005 09:14               

Oops, too many nice vacations, in violation of exchange company policy, I guess:

"Please also keep in mind that the demand for Southwest Florida, as well as all locations in our system, is continually being evaluated, and the corresponding "cost" of this area is
frequently adjusted. You may notice more or less of a difference in Trading Power, depending upon the area you are searching.

We hope this information is helpful."

Sincerely,

E-Communications
RCI - North America

posted 05-16-2005 09:16               

Today I did a little extra searching, to update the desirability of beach (or close to) areas in January. I am assuming that desirability is a somewhat inverse relationship to availability = the more desirable the less available. The one exception to that would be the Panhandle, which has far fewer resorts than the other areas, yet has relatively good avaibility for the number of resorts in the area.

For January '06 & '07, here's what I'm seeing today:

NE: '06-28, '07-17
SE: '06-18, '07-26
NW (Tampa): '06-10, '07-16
Sarasota: '06-1, '07-8
SW: '06-1, '07-7
Panhandle: '06-5, '07-4
Keys: '06-0, '07-1

------------------
16 years timesharing/80 exchanges/Branson-Table Rock Lake boat rides

Interests: Buying/Selling/Renting/Donating/Exchanging/Searching
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posted 05-19-2005 06:00               

Thanks.